Official Germany 2006 Seeding Thread
March 11th, 20101. Germany - hosts;
2. Brazil - defending champions;
3. France - logistics, top in FIFA rankings;
4. Holland - logistics, tradition, rivalry with the hosts, making a possible final;
5. England - last WC quater-finalists, and the same reasons of Holland;
6. Italy - tradition, logistics and powerful UEFA member;
7. Turkey - large fan base in Germany, 3rd place in the last WC;
8. Spain - tradition, top in FIFA rankings, and powerful UEFA member.
Presuming of course, that all these teams qualify for the World Cup, which they probably will!
They alkways based the seeding on previous performance. So most WC winners will be seeded, regardless of their current performance.
. Germany
. Brazil
. France
. Italy
. Argentina
Four of them had woin multi-WCs and earned themselves eternal seeding. France is a recent winner.
Spain: they have been a seeded team in the last two WC Finals. They should be in as well even if they choke in the next 3 years. Their quaterfinal appearance was good enough.
Czech Rep.: close to zero chance due to the fact that they have not been to the Finals since 1990. They never did as the Czech Republic. They will more likely get the lowest seeding for an European squad.
England: tough call.... they have not been seeded since 1990. I do believe that they will finally get seeded in 2006. No other team deserves seeding more than they did. Nobody has a strong run in 2002 and qualified in the last few WC finals.
England missed USA '94. While it won't hurt them as much as it did in 1998 and 2002, it still will hurt them.
If there had only been one host instead of two, then Mexico -- yes Mexico -- would have been seeded.
Sachin
the top 8 in the fifa rankings dont automatically get to be in the top 8 for the world cup draw.
That's true, but it's the only way to move up or down at the moment, since the formula involves placement at the past three World Cup finals and the FIFA ranking at some cutoff point.
Sachin
I was going to wait to after the Confeds Cup to post an update to the seeding formula which I keep on a excel sheet, but if you people want to see it again,
Current (pre Confeds Cup) rankings
1. Brazil 42.33
2. Germany 38.50
3. Spain 31.33
4. Italy 30.50
5. England 30.17
6. Mexico 29.00
7. Denmark 27.33
8. Argentina 26.67
9. USA 25.83
10. France 24.83
11. Turkey 23.33
12. Netherlands 23.00
At this point in time, the only way to improve your seed is to move up in the FIFA Rankings.
Brazil
Germany
Argentina
Spain
Italy
Mexico
England
France
********
Denmark
Holland
Turkey
The single biggest determinant for who gets a seed and who doesn't will be Euro2004, because this will be the biggest driver for the FIFA rankings through 2006.
Of the top 8, France stands to lose the most ground. Had they advanced to only the second round in the previous WC, they would be a lock, Instead, they will need a strong Euro04 appearance to keep their FIFA ranking up in the top three through 2006. If they don't, they will surely fall out of the top 3 and not get a seed.
Holland probably needs to be a top 3 team in the rankings to get a seed next time due to missing WC02. One of the Euros above them not qualifying for the WC would help a lot too.
Of the teams above, IMHO only Brazil, Germany, Spain, and Italy are locks or near locks right now.
The US really doesn't have a shot because they won't have the opportunity to crack the top 7 or 8 in the FIFA rankings.
Before the final WC draw in december of 2005, what teams do you think FIFA will set to be the headers of their groups? By the fact that it's going to be played in UEFA, and since the choices have to do with logistics, fan base, tradition, last WC performances and FIFA rankings, and possible confrontation with the hosts in the final, here's my take on the subject:
1. Germany - hosts;
2. Brazil - defending champions;
3. France - logistics, top in FIFA rankings;
4. Holland - logistics, tradition, rivalry with the hosts, making a possible final;
5. England - last WC quater-finalists, and the same reasons of Holland;
6. Italy - tradition, logistics and powerful UEFA member;
7. Turkey - large fan base in Germany, 3rd place in the last WC;
8. Spain - tradition, top in FIFA rankings, and powerful UEFA member.
Presuming of course, that all these teams qualify for the World Cup, which they probably will!
1.GERMANY
2.BRAZIL
3.FRANCE
4.SPAIN
5.ARGENTINA
6.ITALY
these 6 definitly as long as they qualify
7 AND 8 will probably be two more euro countries
btw for euro 2004 groups
turkeyand czech republic were in pot 1 infront of england and holland whom were in pot 2.
Before the final WC draw in december of 2005, what teams do you think FIFA will set to be the headers of their groups? By the fact that it's going to be played in UEFA, and since the choices have to do with logistics, fan base, tradition, last WC performances and FIFA rankings, and possible confrontation with the hosts in the final:
Interesting conjecture there, Sparky, but wildly off course. Here (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/en/011128/2/35y.html) is how they did it for 2002, I imagine they won't change it too much for 2006, as long as they keep it at 32 teams. As you se, the seeds are determined by strictly statistical factors, not the other arbitrary stuff you mentioned.
Same with Holland, in case somebody didn't notice, they didn't qualify for the last WC, that's going to hurt their chances to be seeded.
If they qualify
Definitely these ones
. Germany
. Brasil
. France
. Italy
These ones most likely
. Argentina
. Spain
. England
Add one other team, which I can't decide at the moment, and there you go.
Spain would get the 6th because they had been to every Final since 19??.
1974!
The seeds will be:
Germany
Argentina
Italy
Brazil
France
Spain
England
Holland or Cameroon or Turkey
Croatia got the third place at France 98, but they weren't seeded on 2002.
The only definite locks are Germany, Brazil, Argentina, France and Spain.
Unless the USA rebounds to win the Confed Cup, wins the Gold Cup and storms through qualifying, they won't be seeded. Mexico could be seeded if a few results go their way. They have been one of the most consistent sides in international soccer for while, albeit at a far lower level than Germany, Brazil, etc.
Sachin
. Germany
. Brazil
. France
. Italy
. Argentina
Four of them had woin multi-WCs and earned themselves eternal seeding. France is a recent winner.
Spain: they have been a seeded team in the last two WC Finals. They should be in as well even if they choke in the next 3 years. Their quaterfinal appearance was good enough.
Czech Rep.: close to zero chance due to the fact that they have not been to the Finals since 1990. They never did as the Czech Republic. They will more likely get the lowest seeding for an European squad.
England: tough call.... they have not been seeded since 1990. I do believe that they will finally get seeded in 2006. No other team deserves seeding more than they did. Nobody has a strong run in 2002 and qualified in the last few WC finals.
If Czech Rep. qualify they will be in the top 8 seeds.
Nope, unless FIFA change their seeding system. I remember from last time that they award points based on achievement at previous tournaments, with the most recent tournament counting for most points.
England's non-qualification in 1994 is still hurting them and is the reason they were unseeded last time. Czech Republic have done absolutely nothing in WC terms and so won't be seeded.
England missed USA '94. While it won't hurt them as much as it did in 1998 and 2002, it still will hurt them.
If there had only been one host instead of two, then Mexico -- yes Mexico -- would have been seeded.
Sachin
I thought of Mexico. They had qualified three straight WC Finals and three straight second round appearance. They also ranked very high on th the useless FIFA ranking.
The automatic are Germany, France, Italy, Argentina and Brazil. Spain would get the 6th because they had been to every Final since 19??.
Two seeds are opened for grab.... I think it would be Mexico and England.
Nope, unless FIFA change their seeding system. I remember from last time that they award points based on achievement at previous tournaments, with the most recent tournament counting for most points.
England's non-qualification in 1994 is still hurting them and is the reason they were unseeded last time. Czech Republic have done absolutely nothing in WC terms and so won't be seeded.
Oh. Well they should be in the top 8.
I like the seeding system but it looks after them to garantee them a second round berth in the world cup.
About Turkey.
Croatia got the third place at France 98, but they weren't seeded on 2002.
This is a pretty good comparison. But Turkey may have an easier time, depending upon how they hold up in the FIFA rankings:
Croatia: 90&94 WC did not qualify, 98 finished third. FIFA rankings #9 at 12.99, #21 at 12.00, #19 at 11.01. They finished ninth in the seeding system.
Turkey: 94&98 did not qualify, 02 finished third. FIFA rankings #23 at 12.01, #9 at 12.02, #8 at 12.03. Time will tell if they can keep their rank in the top 10 at 12.03, 12.04, and 11.05.
Here's a nice link for the seeding formula last time around: http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpWC/CmpWC2002FinalsRank.html
I crunched the numbers a little differently, but it still shakes out about the same as Jeff's. It depends upon which FIFA rankings you take right now. The actual FIFA ranking that will contribute to the seeding process will only be known over the next few years. These are the teams with a legit shot in order.
Brazil
Germany
Argentina
Spain
Italy
Mexico
England
France
********
Denmark
Holland
Turkey
The single biggest determinant for who gets a seed and who doesn't will be Euro2004, because this will be the biggest driver for the FIFA rankings through 2006.
Of the top 8, France stands to lose the most ground. Had they advanced to only the second round in the previous WC, they would be a lock, Instead, they will need a strong Euro04 appearance to keep their FIFA ranking up in the top three through 2006. If they don't, they will surely fall out of the top 3 and not get a seed.
Holland probably needs to be a top 3 team in the rankings to get a seed next time due to missing WC02. One of the Euros above them not qualifying for the WC would help a lot too.
Of the teams above, IMHO only Brazil, Germany, Spain, and Italy are locks or near locks right now.
The US really doesn't have a shot because they won't have the opportunity to crack the top 7 or 8 in the FIFA rankings.
I agree, but a few things to remember,
1. We are assuming that all of these teams actually get into the finals. My guess is at least one of the top UEFA teams will not make it and thus help out everyone below them. My money is on England drawing the group of death in UEFA WCQ and not making it out. But what do I know?
2. The Confeds Cup will help all the teams that play in it including the USA. In the FIFA Rankings you cannot drop points, only gain them. And most of them time, a good loss to a better (higher ranked) team will gain you points. The USA will likley break the tie with Denmark and may gain the five points needed to pass Mexico.
3. At first I thought that Cameroon had no shot at a seed, but now? Look for them to move up as many as five places in the Rankings.
4. Lets us not forget the monkeys running this is FIFA, I would not put it past them to change the whole thing the night before the Finals Draw in Frankfort three Decembers from now.
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